Nov 2026 bulletinEB-2 · India 01 Nov 2013 · China 01 Oct 2021 · Rest of world 01 Apr 2025PERM~10.0 months

Explainers / Numbers

What a "179-year wait" actually means

NFAP's projection that a new Indian EB-2 filer could wait 179 years is a statement about the math of the queue, not a prediction for any one person. How it is calculated and what could change it.

Last verified 2026-09-26 Reviewed September 30, 2026 General guidance, not legal advice. Always check with a qualified attorney

Where the number comes from

The National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) counted about 731,600 Indian-born people (workers plus family) waiting in EB-2 as of December 2025, and divided by the number of EB-2 green cards Indian-born applicants can get each year under the 7% rule. The result: someone joining the back of the line in 2026 would wait about 179 years if nothing changed.

The same method gives about 38 years for Indian EB-3 and about 5 years for EB-1.

Why it isn’t your personal wait

  • People leave the queue. Some qualify for EB-1, marry someone with a different country of chargeability, move abroad, or pass away. Every exit moves others forward.
  • Numbers vary. Unused family-based numbers can spill over to employment categories in some years.
  • Laws change. Removing the per-country cap or recapturing unused visas would rewrite the timeline overnight.

What it does tell you

That for a new Indian-born EB-2 filer, planning as if the green card is “a few years away” is unrealistic. The practical plan is usually: keep H-1B status through three-year extensions, secure the H-4 EAD for a spouse, protect children from aging out, and look seriously at EB-1.

The good

  • It's a projection under current law, not destiny
  • Many people exit the queue (EB-1, NIW with EB-1, marriage, leaving the US)
  • Any change in law or visa numbers changes the math immediately

The hard

  • The underlying problem, demand far above supply, is real
  • People already waiting since 2014 have not reached the front
  • Children and aging parents feel every year of the wait

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Sources

  1. Day1CPT: Indian EB-2 green card wait could reach 179 years (NFAP, Aug 2026)
  2. Cato Institute: Employment-based backlog exceeds 1.2 million

Rules change often. If something here looks out of date, it probably is; check the official source and talk to an immigration attorney about your own case.