Trackers / H-1B lottery odds
H-1B lottery odds
Since the FY2027 season, a registration gets one entry per wage level. Pick the wage level of the offer to see the government's projected selection chance.
At Level II, DHS projected about 30.6%: roughly 3 in 10 registrations selected.
Have a US master's degree or higher? You get a second chance: if you aren't picked in the regular round, you go into the 20,000 advanced-degree round, also weighted. That makes your overall chance higher than the figure above.
Past seasons
| Season | Registrations | Unique people | Selected | Selection rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 470,342 | 423,028 | 135,137 | ~29% |
| FY2026 | 343,981 | 336,153 | 120,141 | ~35% |
| FY2027 | Not yet published | — | — | Weighted by wage level |
Read the full guide: how the lottery works now.
How this works
Projected chances are the Department of Homeland Security's own estimates from the weighted-selection final rule, not USCIS results. Actual odds depend on how many people register at each level each year. Past-year figures are official USCIS numbers where published.
- Federal Register: Weighted Selection Process final rule (Dec 29, 2025)
- Dworsky Law: DHS projected selection rates by wage level
- H1B Data Hub: FY2025–FY2027 registration numbers
An estimate, not legal advice. Your own case can differ; talk to an immigration attorney before acting on it.